AUSTRALIA'S national cattle herd and sheep flock are both expected to decline slightly as record production, slaughter, and exports meet demand, according to Meat & Livestock Australia’s (MLA) 2025 report Cattle and Sheep Industry Projections.
The cattle herd is projected to fall by 1.4 per cent to 30.1 million head in 2025 due to increased turn-off of older breeding cows and dry conditions in Southern Australia.
The nation’s sheep flock will fall 7.4 per cent to 73.2 million head due to the increased turn-off of older breeding ewes and tough seasonal conditions across key sheep producing areas.
MLA managing director Michael Crowley said the report showed that the red meat industry is ready to respond to global demand this year and that the projections were an important tool for the industry to understand forecast conditions.
“Record production and elevated slaughter rates are being met with strong demand from well-established relationships with customers throughout the global supply chain,” Mr Crowley said.
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“By consulting with producers, processors, agents, and government, MLA creates a clear forecast of the national herd and flock and slaughter, production, and carcass weights for the cattle and sheep industries.”
Australia produced more beef in 2024 than in any other year, despite slaughter volumes being seven per cent below the previous record set in 2014.
This was due to higher carcass weights which were primarily in response to increased grain feeding production.
“Producers are growing more efficient and productive cattle compared to 10 years ago,” Mr Crowley said.
“This is important considering the significant global demand for beef will continue this year, leading to another record production year.
“Australia is currently in an opposite supply cycle to major beef-producing competitors such as the United States and Brazil, and as the US begins its long-overdue herd rebuild and drought conditions in Brazil ease, global beef supply is expected to tighten.
“Australia is well-positioned to achieve record production and export volumes once again.”
The decline in the national sheep flock will result from older breeding ewes retained from the 2020–22 rebuild finally exiting the system this year.
Sheep slaughter is forecast to decline 17 per cent to 9.8 million head, following the record rates of sheep turn-off at the conclusion of 2024.
Lamb slaughter is forecast to reach 26.2 million head, which is a slight half per cent decline from the record year of 2024, making 2025 the second-largest slaughter year on record.
Despite the decline in the national flock, lamb production continues to operate at historically high levels reaching 628,648 tonnes in 2025, driven in part by genetic changes in the flock with a focus on improving weight gain and yield in lamb carcasses.
Australia and New Zealand account for more than 80 per cent of global sheepmeat exports.
However, the long-standing decline of the New Zealand sheep flock is forecast to provide an opportunity for Australian sheepmeat exporters to continue global dominance this year.
